Social Conflicts and Human Capital Accumulation

Quasi-experimental evidence from extractive industries in Peru

Causal Inference
Education
Development
Mining
Event study analysis showing mining conflicts reduce test scores by 0.15 SD and increase dropout rates by 2.3pp. Master’s thesis using Callaway-Sant’Anna DID estimator.
Author

Maykol Medrano

Published

September 20, 2024

Overview

This study examines the causal effect of resource-related social conflicts on educational outcomes in Peru, using a difference-in-differences design with event-study specification.

Research Question

Do mining and hydrocarbon conflicts disrupt human capital accumulation in affected communities?

Methodology

Causal Inference Strategy: - Event study with staggered treatment adoption - Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021) DID estimator - Shift-share instrumental variables for robustness checks - Two-way fixed effects regression with clustered standard errors

Data Sources: - Administrative education records (MINEDU) - Social conflict registry (National Police & Ombudsman’s Office) - Mining production and canon transfers (MEF) - Census data for demographic controls

Key Findings

  • Exposure to social conflicts reduces standardized test scores by 0.15 SD
  • Dropout rates increase by 2.3 percentage points in affected districts
  • Effects persist for 3+ years after conflict occurrence
  • Stronger impacts in rural areas and communities with weak governance

Policy Implications

Results suggest the need for: - Targeted educational interventions in conflict-affected areas - Improved conflict prevention mechanisms in extractive zones - Strengthened local institutional capacity - Early warning systems for educational disruption

Citation

@mastersthesis{medrano2025conflicts,
  title={Social Conflicts and Human Capital Accumulation: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Extractive Industries in Peru},
  author={Medrano, Maykol},
  year={2025},
  school={Pontificia Universidad Cat\'olica de Chile},
  type={Master's Thesis},
  note={In progress},
  url={https://maykolmedrano.github.io/projects/social-conflict-education.html}
}

APA Format: Medrano, M. (2025). Social Conflicts and Human Capital Accumulation: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Extractive Industries in Peru [Master’s thesis, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile]. https://maykolmedrano.github.io/projects/social-conflict-education.html

Master’s thesis in progress. Draft available Q2 2025.